Long range weather forecast: What will the weather be like this autumn in Spain’s Andalucia?

AS autumn approaches, Spain’s Met Office, AEMET, has unveiled its seasonal forecast for the entire Andalucia region.

The announcement was made public last Friday, September 15, during a press conference given by Juan de Dios del Pino, the AEMET territorial delegate, and comes following the ‘warmest summer since 1961.’

The forecast suggests an 80% chance of precipitation, which could be either normal (30%) or above average (50%). Expected rainfall ranges from 136 to 215 litres per square metre.

Furthermore, there’s a 90% chance of having temperatures that are either typical (30%) or warmer than usual (60%), with expected average temperatures ranging from 16.8ºC to 17.7ºC.

According to Del Pino, this chance of rainfall, while ‘promising,’ doesn’t resolve the drought issue.

However, if the precipitation forecast proves accurate, it could provide some much-needed relief to specific agricultural and livestock industries, especially given that rainfall has consistently fallen below average levels throughout the past decade, with the exceptions of 2017 and 2018.

Autumn-style storms known as 'Gota Frias' predicted to bring torrential rain to large areas of Spain this weekend
AEMET forecast suggests an 80% chance of precipitation in Andalucia this autumn.

The weather expert explained that Andalucia experiences limited and sporadic rainfall, coupled with an increasing occurrence of ‘Danas’ or cold drop events.

As a result, a significant portion, approximately 57.5%, of the region’s annual rainfall for this agricultural year came from just two episodes; in December and spring.

These rains did make the summer wetter than usual in Andalucia, with more than double the typical rainfall. However, they fall short in alleviating the drought, as the precipitation deficit for the agricultural year stands at 207 litres per square metre.

Additionally, Pino has highlighted that the pattern of rainfall has shifted, with reduced winter precipitation and increased spring rainfall.

This change leads to a decrease in the occurrence of Atlantic depressions, which usually bring gentle, evenly spread, and moderate rainfall, and a rise in the frequency of “Danas,” characterised by concentrated, heavy, and geographically irregular precipitation.

The possible consequences of intense rainfall includes crop harm, soil erosion, and an elevated risk of flooding caused by heavy downpours.


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