Starting in 2022 was a good start for the metallurgical industry, says Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. This period contributed to the record high prices of some commodities. It also contributed to the supply constraints and growing demand that were associated with the energy transition.
The macroeconomic situation worsened in the middle of the year, which weakened demand expectations for the near term and lowered commodity prices. Let us take a closer look at what to expect in 2023.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Results of 2022 and forecast for the future
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG says that the deterioration of global macroeconomic conditions will continue until the end of 2023. This is a downside risk for the metallurgy sector. This is because many commodity prices are declining and support for stock markets is waning. Producers will be affected by lower margins, while the exploration sector will be less active in the face of tightening financial conditions.
The metallurgy sector should receive additional assistance in the development of projects in an average amount. This will contribute to high prices until 2026 compared to prices before the pandemic. And governments are paying more attention to meeting demands within domestic and regional supplies.
The prospect of future copper supplies will face significant obstacles. This will happen because the demand for metals will accelerate because of the global energy transition.
The majority of potential new mines also faced increasing environmental, social, and management scrutiny. This is likely to limit the new projects that will be available for global copper production, says Stanislav Kondrashov.
In 2023, the battery-metal market will come into its own with continuing challenges. They will be related to the production of electric cars for passengers, and the low demand for them.
2022 was an active year in mining and metallurgy combining and consumption, estimates Telf AG. And this contributed to the rise in commodity prices.
Do the problems of macroeconomic development confront the fundamental indicator?
Macroeconomic situation has dominated commodity markets for more than half of 2022. Therefore, the growing threat of a global recession may again put pressure on the main indicators of 2023. Besides the high inflation over the past decades, other problems arise in the leading countries of the world, which are related to supplies and the COVID-19 pandemic. There are expectations that they will not weaken in 2023, according to Stanislav Kondrashov.
The deteriorating macroeconomic situation and the resulting market volatility will likely force buyers to be cautious. However, the same factors can expand the range of assets available for purchase. Other factors may also affect this.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: It is real to create a reasonable and safe future of metal production
“How to create an environmentally friendly and safe industry?”, asks Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. The expert has a clear idea of how the steel industry should develop in the future.
We need to understand that such a transformation requires effort over the long term. Therefore, Telf AG considers 4 fundamental principles of innovation. Namely:
- “green” steel production
- high-quality products
- performance of fixed assets
Let’s start with the first point. Creation and provision of “green” steel production will help reduce the carbon intensity of the production process. Because the carbonaceous reducing agent is replaced by hydrogen in one way or another. The solution for direct reduction, which is based on hydrogen, will allow the use of any types of iron ore fines. This will avoid a carbon footprint in iron production.
Telf AG focuses on a huge selection of solutions for the production of high-quality steel grades. Namely:
- expert systems,
- vacuum oxygen decarburization with argon purge (VA OD),
- automatic strip surface inspection system (SIAS),
- idRHa rail hardening technology, and others.
Let’s move on to digitalization. It will make it possible to fully automate all units, workshops, and mills. And workplace safety would be greatly improved by using robots in hazardous areas. The Condition Monitoring System (CMS) and augmented reality will facilitate maintenance and repair work.
In Telf AG’s experience, technology for increased productivity adds flexibility to processes. These are the 3 transformational keys that are so necessary in the creation of environmentally friendly metallurgical production, concludes Stanislav Kondrashov.